Srinagar-Leh to Re-open

Tribune and others this evening are filled with the news that Srinagar-Leh is open … which seems to mean that the material for the last Bailey bridge is in place , and the BRO is confident to have this up by Saturday.
The Kargil weather forecast has been revised , and no longer promises very havy rains , until the 18th.

Conditions between Manali-Leh are worse , and a temporary re-routing around the major landslides is being discussed.

UPDATE : The Srinagar-Leh road is now , Saturday morning , shown as open at leh.nic.in

Leh Flashfloods Update , August 10th

The official death toll remains at 145 . Media mentions two French casualties , but there are some unclear points : they are not posted on the list of deceased at leh.nic.in , and there are no mentions of it in French media , at least with the names given by the ITBP .

Weather forecast is bleak , a severe weather warning from IMD for Himachal and Jammu and Kashmir talks of heavy rainfall the next 48 hours. The Kargil district weather forecast talks of massive rainfall in the coming five days , culminating in 72 millimeters of rain on August 14th : don´t even think of this route this week.

The first first hand reports have also started to appear :

I was staying at a guest house in old town Leh. The rain came down so hard that I first thought hail was banging against my windows. I soon heard shouting in the streets. I grabbed my flashlight (no electricity in Leh at this point) and went out to the balcony to see that the ground floor of my guest house was filling with water. A neighbor and I went to wake up the owner and the other guests to warn them of the danger. The owner and his family frantically tried to blockade the door with a sheet of zinc and sandbags to prevent more water from entering the building.

The water continued to rise as we tourists tried to quickly pack our most important belongings in the rain and darkness. The neighbors kept shouting for us get out of the house. I couldn’t understand why at the time. My instinct in a flash flood was to climb upstairs as high as possible. I only understood the next day, that the houses in Ladakh are often not built to withstand a cloudburst like this and that the neighbors were afraid the roof or the house itself might collapse. The water rose to about 4 feet at its deepest in the street, and about 2 1/2 feet in the guesthouse before the heavy rain stopped and the water began to recede. Locals said that they had never seen rain like this in 75years.

It was only the next morning that the scope of the devastation became gradually apparent. All stores were closed and people began to move en masse to the the worst hit area of the bus station that was flattened by mudslides. When I arrived at mid-morning, 4 bulldozers were at work removing heavy debri. Along side them, hundreds of volunteers, both locals and many tourists, formed human chains to remove dirt and debri by hand, hoping that they might find survivors underneath the mud. Unfortunately, in the time that I was working there, only bodies were pulled out.

Some roads were covered in mud and debri. The airport was closed, there was no electricity, and only one cellphone company was working. Most of the town was still largely intact though and tourists wandered the streets trying to find open restaurants and gathering in groups to share information. By Friday afternoon several cyber cafes had opened and very slow internet (via satellite) was available.

That first day, (Friday August 6th) there was little sign of government or military presence in Leh. (There were places I didn’t go such as the hospital or makeshift morgue, however, where they may have been present). With a lack of any clear authority or organizing force, rumors and fear abounded. The skies over the mountains were dark and stormy on late Friday afternoon and a rumor spread that another flash flood was coming. People began to run and drive in a panic trying to find high ground. It’s easy to understand why. Given the death toll the night before, nerves were shattered.

The news media arrived in Leh and Choglamsar on Saturday August 7th along with some aid and a more visible military presence. As of today (Sunday August 8th), however, there has been little news of the fate of people in the villages. Trekkers hiking into Leh, report seeing bodies of local people at the mudslides and I fear the death toll will be significant.

Dozens, maybe hundreds of tourists were also trapped by the floods in the villages and mountains. Efforts have been underway to rescue foreign nationals who are still stranded. I’ve heard unconfirmed (again unconfirmed, only third-hand) accounts that a small number of foreign trekkers may have been injured and/or killed. Those trekkers who were able to hike back to Leh have some harrowing stories to tell. What started out as a fun holiday trek, turned into a life-threatening ordeal in the space of just an hour of rain.

( from a long thread at IndiaMike )

Leh photo , showing the area between the old and new bus stand , and main street in Choglamsar from Associated Press. Air photo ( looks like the area between Leh and Shey , close to the Dalai Lama´s house ) from the Indian Army .

Flashfloods in Leh

Most painful post, ever : the death toll after the flash floods in Ladakh is now ( Saturday) 132, 375 wounded, and mounting. The worst hit parts are the area around the old bus stand , and the Choklamsar Tibetan camp. The geography involved :

Old town Leh sits below the ridge with the Leh Palace . North and east the terrain forms a tilted bowl , the flood ( 48 millimeters of rain in one minute ..) would have come down this way , before heading down towards the Indus. Along that route there would be two major streams hitting first the area with a lot of government agencies ,the new bus stand , SECMOL, the Mentsekhang institute of traditional medicine and small work shops before everyting went over the airfield.

The least affected part was the Changspa area ,north of the ridge with palace , where you find most of the guesthouses. From a Indiamike thread :

I was in Upper Changspa when this happen and until this morning, the mud and debris still on the road around town, especially on the road towards Shey. Most of the people in Changspa, including me, spent last night in Shanti Stupa, locals and tourists alike. I heard group of Jewish chanting prayers followed by group of local Buddhist afterwards. And in front of my own eyes, from Shanti Stupa we can see the river in the village becoming so muddy and violent, ripping all the trees beside it. My heart goes to all the victims.

East of Leh you have you have the valley around the Sabu … river , right now , that goes all the way up to the 5400 meter high Digar La pass . This all ends up at the Choklamsar Tibetan settlement , with a lot of casualties. One report mentions a small village before Choklamsar being completely wiped out.

Some major points , last update Sunday morning :

* So far , no tourist casualties reported ( but the Foreign Ministry now vaguely mentions tourists being “affected”).
* Leh airport is now operational again , flying out the wounded and bringing in rescue teams/supplies. Manpower is not a real problem , beacuse of the heavy Army presence in Ladakh.
* Cell phones are working , internet still out . The official Ladakh site is unchanged since all this started.
* Manali-Leh is out at Rothang , Zing Zing Bar and the Baralacha La has had massive landslides.
*It´s still raining in Leh , and the weather forecast projects more rain in the coming five days.
*Srinagar-Leh is out at the Nimmu bridge , and on top of that one poster reports from Srinagar that yesterdays bus was cancelled after becoming a target of stone throwers there.
* So far we are practically only seeing reports from Leh : it will get worse. Nubra has also been affected.

UPDATE , Sunday :

*The web is starting to work : the leh.nic.in page has been updated , mentioning now 145 dead , 102 identified , all but two Nepalis said to be Indian citizens . No Tibetans from Choklamsar seem to be named , few if any refugees are Indian citizens , and travel with the “Yellow Book ” document.
( For those that are in Leh now , with shaky connections : fastest way of letting others know that you are ok , first step : log in to your travel site , most have a member profile page that shows “latest activity ” , including latest log in . )

* Swedish daily Aftonbladet ( their photo at the top) quotes the FO saying that three Swedes are missing , as in not accounted for : ” we have not been able to contact them yet” .

Zoji La , June 9th

Early crossing

IM member Stylers party on a early crossing of the Zoji La pass to Ladakh , June 9th. Check out his gallery here

Ladakh Roads Update , June 5th

MANALI-LEH
Todays suspense story : will the Manali-Leh highway declared open , as said from BRO yesterday … with the caveat of under favorable weather conditions . The Leh weather forecast : less than perfect .

Leh Weather Forecast , Saturday..

“The entire state saw moderate rains Saturday with temperatures plummeting sharply” in the words of the Met office in Shimla today – others mentions rain and night temperatures in Keylong dropping down to two degrees , unknown conditions higher up. Over the last few days there have been a number of posts describing going past the Rothang and being forced to turn back before Keylong , and – last post here , today – turning back at Jispa , i.e. just after Keylong yesterday. Only prediction possible : expect some sleet and mud if the road is thrown open today.

SRINAGAR-LEH
From the Kashmir end cars and bikes have made it to Leh just until yesterday , despite heavy rains in the Vale with some collapsing houses ,landslides and light snowfall around around Lamayuru on the 31st. Today heavy rains , and – according to one poster on bcmtouring – taxis not running to Leh. News talks of rescue operations for “hundreds” of nomads and presumably travellers in the high terrain of Kishtwar , around the Pir Panjal range and the Zoji La after heavy snowfall, and two named dead from hypothermia.

NUBRA
Khardung La has had a long , game changing , winter outage lasting weeks. This has been partially managed by the new , jeepable only , road out along the Shyok river and over the Chang La pass ( thanx for the update , Becky ) .

KARGIL-PADUM (ZANSKAR)
In Zanskar there was short open window , less than a week , of open road to Rangdum towards Padum in mid-May , and a news story this week mentions recent snowfall & severe shortage of basic supplies in Padum: rice , sugar , kerosene…

UPDATE , JUNE 7TH :
One biker reports reaching Leh from Srinagar yesterday , with heavy snowfall around the Zoji La. Rain in Manali all yesterday , petering out this morning. Himachal Pradesh is mentioned in the current severe weather warning from india Met Department : “isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall”. Rothang closed.

Roads to Leh Out

All news is bad news today :

Srinagar-Leh road has received a lot of rain in lower elevations , turning in to snow high up ( five centimeters of snow in Sonmarg) : road has been closed again.

Manali-leh is still out after Keylong , which just has received five centimeters of snow.

Manali-Kaza is out after snowfall and slides after Grampho.

Impermanence : Both Roads to Leh Out

North side of the Rothang La , by Avinash Siddhu , on the 17th – before renewed snowfall hit the Rothang , turning in to rain lower down. Baralacha La still out.
And a promising feel to the eastward road from Gramphu towards the Kunzum La , again , before the last snow.

A number of reports of snowfall from Chitkul , Baralacha La and even Kaza.
At the Chang La pass an avalanche killed a tourist , a local from Leh later also died from his injuries while the army managed to rescue 73 others trapped by the avalanche which laid two meters of snow masses over the road.

Srinagar-Leh road also out , from slides ,not avalanches.

Sources : Himvani.com , bcm.touring , ANI ,India Met. Department

Srinagar-Leh Opens , 2010

In Greater Kashmir today : light vehicles now running , and heavy vehicles allowed from April 20th. First 170 vehicles has started for Leh , and traffic from Kargil to Srinagar started .

Srinagar-Leh , Saturday Tribune photo

Srinagar-Leh NOT open

Big buzz on news & blogs about the Srinagar-Leh road opening today , which on a closer look proved to be a dud :

* the official road marker on web , leh.nic.in , still shows the road as closed.

* a news story quotes police both in Kargil and Srinagar denying that the road has opened

* Border Roads Organisation , who are in charge of clearing the road says ““It has been snowing in Sonamarg, Baltal and the Zojilla pass area since yesterday (Monday) evening and it is likely that the opening of the Srinagar-Leh highway would now be delayed for some time more”.

““All we said was that the snow clearance operation was in full swing in the Zojilla Pass area of the road. The road is likely to be thrown open for two-way traffic by April 20 and as of now, it remains closed,”

* other news stories talks of fresh snowfall on Monday triggering avalanches

* weather today : rain in Srinagar and Gulmarg , expected to turn in to snow at higher locations. Think slush avalanches.

UPDATE : SASE , the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment , issues low level avalanche warning for Kargil district on the 31st.

Srinagar-Leh Opening Dates

For the latest Srinagar-Leh updates , go here ( short catchy link : http://korta.nu/sticky ) . For the informed guess , here are the opening dates in April and May over the last ( almost ) decade , 2001-2009.

It made me surprised myself , when it comes out in a diagram : the “typical” openings around the turn of April/May are matched by the equally frequent “extreme late”  openings from mid-to-end May . The observant webbie have probably already noticed that there are ten openings in nine years : the 2008 opening was a mildly chaotic affair , lasting a single day , with a few hundred Indians in solid summer clothes experiencing avalanches cutting the road behind & ahead of them , making it in to Leh . Eventually. Thus the statistical term “iffy” : a officially open road is no guarantee that you will make it on the exact date you have in mind .

Post 2009 updates :

2010 the road opened April 20th

2011 : May 3rd

2012  : April 25th

2013 : April 9th

2014: May 16th

2015 : May 8th

2016 :May 1st

2017 : May 8th

2018 : March 28th

2019 : April 28th

2020 : April 11th